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Archive for November 12th, 2008

Steve Jobs, the iCar, Barack Obama, and John Doerr

Posted by Bob Warfield on November 12, 2008

How do we fix companies like GM that have failed to innovate and are dying?  We can’t really afford to let them die, there are too many jobs at stake and it will take to long to replace them starting from scratch. 

Fred Wilson says the answer is to break them up in conjunction with the bailout, not to consolidate them into ever larger and more vulnerable entities that still don’t have a clue.  That’s a better answer, but it still doesn’t resonate.  Car companies need a fair amount of scale, and it isn’t clear there is much to break up in terms of the individual badges.  Buicks and Chevys share so much that there may not really be such a thing as a Buick.  It’s just a Chevy with some lipstick.  In fact, that may be one of the biggest problems right there.

I really got excited when I read Tom Steinert-Threlkeld’s article, “Steve Jobs for President of GM.”  He suggests it would take Jobs no more than a year to perfect his iCar, and that it would set the world on fire.  I don’t know if it would only take a year, and I doubt Jobs would want the job of President of GM, but it did get me to thinking.

There is a model for the kind of relationship Jobs, Apple, and GM need to have.  It’s the model that married Mercedes Benz and Swatch together to create the Smart.

Model for the GM+Apple iCar?
The Smart: Model for the GM+Apple iCar?
What would an iCar be like?  There are a few assumptions we can draw from.  First, the User Experience from the design, to the materials, to the feel, to the operation would be both innovative and exquisite.  The Smart is certainly innovative, but it is playful in the Swatchy way that I don’t see Jobs doing.  He’s quite serious about his designs.  They are sublime, no doubt about it, but they are not really playful.
Second, the iCar would be transformative.  It would not be Just Another Car any more than the iPhone is Just Another Phone.  Jobs would look at some aspect of the Car Experience and redefine it in a newer better way.
Let’s try to drill down with more detail.  I won’t go to far on the design side other than to say the iCar would be minimalist and modern, and that it would make innovative use of materials.  Carbon Fiber, milled aluminum ala the Brick, unique combiinations of plastics and glass are all possible.  Partially because the design and materials will be innovative, the iCar will not be cheap.  Jobs’ creations never are.  But they will be must haves and they won’t be Ferrari-expensive.  Think more Lexus.  All those rich folks that bought Priuses so they could drive in the carpool lane will be buying iCars.
Speaking of which, it seems to me that the iCar will have to be a hybrid of some kind.  It’s possible it could license Mercedes Blue Diesel technology, but the propulsion will be something unique relative to what GM builds today.
Now what about transforming the Car Experience?  I don’t envision anything too crazy here.  It isn’t necessary that we have a drive-by-wire system that involves holding our iPhone and reading its accelerometers rather than turning our steering wheel.  However, the iPhone and many of its concepts should play into it.  I can see Jobs wanting to transform the electronics side of the car.  It’s entertainment systems, and it’s systems for communicating with the driver. 
In terms of communicating with the driver, we’ve got a dashboard.  I’d look for a big touch panel on the console that does most of the work and very few mechanical controls.  Vintage iPod and iPhone.  I’d look for beautiful readouts, and perhaps a new heads up display that integrates navigation (e.g. maps) with the instantaneous status of the car (e.g. speed).  Clever bits would abound like integrating the gas gauge with the maps so that when the low gas light goes on the cheapest gas nearby lights up on the map at the same time.
The entertainment system is where things really get interesting.  Of course the iPhone will have a drop in slot and the car will seamlessly mind meld so that you can do handsfree calling with voice activation very easily.  But it’ll go way beyond that.  For example, imagine a handsfree version of Google Reader, only tied up in the proprietary yet friendly way that Apple is so good at.  Subscribe to RSS feeds and have them read to you by your iCar as you commute.  Connect to online radio stations delivered by iTunes.  Access all of your mobile music off your iPhone for play, and at the same time, listen to stations where you can make an instant iTunes purchase of anything you like, while driving, and handsfree.
Video should be available for the non-drivers.  In fact, I could see each seat having an iPhone socket so everyone can drop in their iPhone, connect via Bluetooth headset just to their device, and even all listen to their own music, hear their own podcasts, and otherwise go about using the entertainments system independently and in a personalized way.  I would expect the iPhones to also be dockable via WiFi, so that you can use the car’s flip-down LCD screens to see a game and you iPhone as the handheld game controller.
Of course Jobs can bring the AT&T relationship along and deliver 3G and WiFi connectivity to the cars wherever they may be via the AT&T network.  Probably AT&T could be persuaded to deliver other bennies to the deal as well in exchange for the even greater market advantages an iCar could bring them.
Does anyone doubt such a car could be built, or that it would sell extremely well?
Heck, let’s give GM the bailout, but insist they take on the iCar with Steve Jobs.  Let’s consider a similar Executive Mashup for other ailing industries.  If you want bailout money, you have to take on the pet project of the innovator most likely to succeed in your space.  We won’t bet your whole company and recovery on it, but we will bet that it helps a lot.
Getting back to my title, I would think a meeting of Barack Obama, John Doerr (because hey, maybe it takes more than just Jobs and Doerr has the right connection for the Green parts of the iCar), Steve Jobs, and the CEO of GM ought to be able to get this done.
When can I buy my iCar?
Related Articles
Seth Godin says the answer is for the government to facilitate the structured bankruptcies of the big makers and then to invest in making it easy for small car companies to get started.  I like this idea.  There are a lot of industries where government has made it awfully hard to innovate.  Consider SOX, which radically raised the bar for tech companies to go public.  Is was supposed to prevent Enron-like financial disasters.  Does anyone really believe it has helped when you look around you at today’s finanical disasters?

Posted in strategy | 8 Comments »

Are We Closing in on Saturation for Some SaaS Segments?

Posted by Bob Warfield on November 12, 2008

While a vocal group continues to dither on whether SaaS is a permanent fixture, whether their on-premises company should get involved, and many other questions, the SaaS industry has been marching along.  I noted some interested statistics in an article from gleaned from a Software Satisfaction Awards survey:

–  60% of SME businesses are using a SaaS solution for CRM.  1/3 of Medium and Enterprise use SaaS for CRM.

–  50% of Medium businesses use a SaaS HR solution with the figure rising to 75% for talent management.

Those are much higher adoption rates than I would have guessed.  One starts to wonder with numbers like 60% and 75% whether some of the segments aren’t getting pretty fished out.  The survey represents 5,000 respondents, but I have no idea how representative it really is.  If accurate, it would imply that companies like Salesforce or perhaps SuccessFactors need to open new market segments pretty soon.  Salesforce, of course, is moving up market into the Enteprise to an increasing extent.

Another tidbit:  one of the key ingredients for customer satisfaction was the ability to act on their suggestions quickly.  SaaS companies move a lot faster than others.

Posted in saas | 3 Comments »

It May Not Be the Best of Times, But Times Are Not Bad For SaaS

Posted by Bob Warfield on November 12, 2008

I took fellow Enterprise Irregular Larry Dignan and a few others to task for rallying around Netsuite’s earnings announcement as a sign of weakness for SaaS.  Larry said of SaaS, “It should be the best of times, but it isn’t,” and I said that (along with remarks by some others) was curmudgeonly behavior.  I pointed out that SaaS companies including NetSuite were doing pretty well compared to the likes of On-premises companies, particularly when you view it through the lens and perspective of the worst recession we have seen in 70 years.

Along comes Concur’s earnings announcement today after market close, and I have to say that it is a ringing endorsement both for Concur and for the SaaS model in general.  As I look, Concur is up 10% in after hours trading on a day when everything else I monitor was in the red and the DJIA in general was down 176 points.

A few details from the announcement:

–  Total revenue for fiscal 4Q08 was $57.5M, up 61% year on year and up 5% sequentially.  At a time when most companies are projecting a deepening recession Concur managed to grow sequentially.

–  Total revenue was $215.5M for fiscal 2008, up 67%.   When was the last time you heard of an on-premises public software company that had grown 67% in annual revenues?

–  Net income is growing and cash flow is way up 222% from the year ago quarter.  I’m with Warren Buffet and others in being more interested in cash flow than net income.

Of course this beats the street handily, and that’s one reason the company is up after hours.

The company is giving guidance for growth in 2009.

So once again, for the SaaS doubters out there, which On-premises companies are posting results like this? 

Clearly customers and the market are voting their pocketbook, at least for Concur.  It’ll be interesting to see how well Salesforce is sustaining their momentum with the next announcement.

These are not the best of times for anyone, but the times are not bad for SaaS companies.

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