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Founders: The Bubble Clock is Ticking

Posted on May 23, 2011

The incredible valuation of the LinkedIn IPO can only be interpreted as one signal:  the Bubble Clock has started ticking.  So long as it continues to run, we will live in a reality distortion where valuations are insanely high, capital is cheap, and smart businesses can leverage that to hyper growth.  When it stops, we’re […]

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Posted in business, strategy, venture | 5 Comments »

The Bubble Has Begun With the Most Expensive Stock In America

Posted on May 19, 2011

It’s official, the current Bubble has begun with LinkedIn’s IPO.  It was declared the most expensive stock in America even before doubling which means its now clearly way past Bubble territory.  Exciting stuff! LinkedIn’s PE is 62 times Apple’s, 50 times Google’s, but less than 4 times’s.  Wow, AAPL and GOOG look like Value […]

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Posted in bootstrapping | 4 Comments »

The Art of Riding the Bubble

Posted on March 24, 2011

People are increasingly asking whether there is a Bubble underway in the tech business.  The answer is that by the time you know there is a Bubble it’s probably too late to do anything about it.  But if all you’re doing is asking whether there is a Bubble, the Bubble is probably not here, yet. […]

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Posted in strategy, venture | 12 Comments »

Is Enterprise 2.0 a Real Trend, or a Bubble That Has Burst?

Posted on October 21, 2008

In down times there is always a morbid curiosity, call it a death watch even.  Which companies are really just bubble babies (a delightful phrase coined by MDV venture capitalist Nancy Schoendorf) that can only exist in frothy times and which ones represent real trends that will last?  In particular, what about Enterprise 2.0, which I […]

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Posted in Marketing, strategy, user interface, Web 2.0 | 5 Comments »

March of the Sugar Plum Commoditizers: Maybe It’s A Sign There’s Less Bubble Than Thought?

Posted on December 20, 2007

No, I’m not calling commoditizers fairies are even trying to be derogatory, it was just a title that seemed to work at this time of the year.  What it’s about is that we’re seeing some fruits of the Web 2.0 tree ripening enough that the commoditizers see an opportunity.  What does a commoditizer do?  They […]

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Posted in saas | Leave a Comment »

How Will This Web 2.0 Bubble Burst?

Posted on October 30, 2007

The cries that the present Web 2.0 world is a bubble about to burst are becoming increasingly strident.  Emotions are starting to run away, and sometimes it gets a little ugly with the name calling.  We are at that classic point where bubble cryers abound and those who believe there is no bubble are becoming […]

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Posted in business, strategy, Web 2.0 | 9 Comments »

There May Be a Bubble, But It Isn’t a Casino Economy

Posted on October 17, 2007

I’m stuck chasing Nick Carr around today it seems.  He’s written about some dire predictions by economist Carlota Perez in the NY Times about the effects of companies spending so much money to acquire what are basically small startups.  In Carlota’s view, the normal cycle would see these companies devalued by a bubble burst, and […]

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Posted in saas | 4 Comments »

Enterprise Software’s Youth Drain: Bubble Economics, Meet the New Business Models: SaaS and Open Source

Posted on October 13, 2007

M.R. Rangaswami writes on GigaOm that there is a youth drain in Enterprise Software.  He’s right, but there is a discontinuity that accounts for it.  The traditional Enterprise Software world is caught between three extremely powerful yet opposing forces:  consolidation, SaaS, and Open Source. Consolidation is personified by SAP’s recent acquisition move with Business Objects […]

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Posted in business, saas, strategy | 1 Comment »

Is Conventional Software Built on Bubble Economics? (Hint: It’s All About Recurring Revenue!)

Posted on September 27, 2007

I stirred up considerable discussion by dropping a chance remark in the middle of my Steve Singh interview: I wonder sometimes whether the conventional software model has ever really flourished except during bubbles of one kind or another.  Look at Big ERP.  They had the benefit of several major bubble waves:  the rush to switch […]

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Posted in business, saas, strategy | 4 Comments »

You Have to Have an Overseas Dev Team to Scale? Baloney!

Posted on September 7, 2013

ba·lo·ney 2 also bo·lo·ney (b -l n ) Slang. n. Nonsense. interj. Used to express disagreement or exasperation. Recently, I was doing something on LinkedIn, and it asked me to endorse various people’s skills like it often does.  One face in particular popped out at me:  Anders Hejlsberg.  I’ve known Anders for many years, so […]

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Posted in business, software development, strategy | 3 Comments »

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